tv Deep Thinking CSPAN July 15, 2017 7:00pm-8:06pm EDT
>> that all happens tonight on c-span2's booktv. first up, here's garry kasparov on the potential for artificial intelligence. [applause] >> hello. pardon me while i get the microphone all set up. good afternoon and welcome to the commonwealth club of california, the place where you're in the know. you can find the commonwealth club on the internet at commonwealthclub.org. i'm holly kernan, vice president of news at kqed in san francisco, and i'll be your moderator. and now it is my pleasure to introduce today's distinguished speaker, garry kasparov.
yea, whoo hoo. [applause] garry is chairman of the human rights foundation, former world chess champion and author of the new book, "deep thinking." born in azerbaijan, mr. kasparov became the under-18 chess champion of the ussr at age 12. and the world -- yeah. [laughter] [applause] and the world under-20 champion at age 17. he gained international fame at the age of 32 as the youngest -- 22 as the youngest world chess champion in history. he defended his title five times including a legendary series of matches against his archrival. mr. kasparov was one of the first prominent soviets to call for democratic and market reforms. he was an early supporter of boris question sin's bush to
break up the soviet union. in 1990, he and his family escaped native violence as the ussr collapsed n. 2005 in his 20th year as the world's top-rated player, mr. kasparov retired from professional chess to join the vanguard of the russian pro-democracy movement. in 2012 he was name chairman of the new york-based human rights foundation, and he was facing imminent arrest in 2013 during vladimir putin's crackdown, and he moved from moscow to new york city. his u.s.-based kasparov chess foundation nonprofit continues to promote the teaching of chess in the education systems around the world. pertinent to today's discussion, mr. kasparov is a senior visiting fellow at the oxford martin school with a fox on human-machine -- focus on human-machine collaboration. and i actually had to cut stuff out, he's so accomplished. he's also a member of the executive advisory board of the foundation for responsible
robotics. as you know, 20 years ago, in may of 1997, the world watched as mr. garry kasparov, the greatest chess player in the world, was defeated for the first time by the ibm supercomputer, deep blue. he likes to point out that just the year before he won his match against the computer -- [laughter] and he says his competition symbolized mans fight against machine, yet two decades later he's come to see how humans and machines can partner to reach results that neither can attain alone. and has the subject of his new book, "deep thinking." we'll get into that in a minute. please join me in giving a warm welcome to mr. garry kasparov. [applause] all right. before we get into the subject of your book and all of these interesting conversations around a.i. and how it's just absolutely revolutionizing our world, i'm going to start with russia.
so -- [laughter] given the extraordinary political moment that we're many, can you just give us -- that we're in, can you just give us some insight in what it was like to be a dissident in putin-led russia and how that crackdown on democratic participation intensified. was it gradual? talk to us about how that happened. >> it's quite funny. eight months ago i was here in san francisco and just traveledded across the country promoting my previous book, "winter's coming" -- >> which we'll talk about also. >> which talk about vladimir putin. everyone wanted to ask me about ibm and deep blue. [laughter] so now i have a new book -- [laughter] and it's inescapable. but somehow it's probably the two summits are connected because a -- the two subjects are connected because a lot of russian stories are connected to
cybersecurity, to -- it's not a.i., but it's about interference using new technology. now, regarding the situation in russia, it's also quite extraordinary moment. i just arrived here today in the san francisco airport, and while waiting for a car, so i looked at the news from moscow calling for big rallies on june the 12th. so it seems that in four days' time we'll have another massive rally in russia. there are, i think 211 cities now just people, 211 russian cities, they already expressed their desire to join these rallies against corruption. but, of course, it's against vladimir putin. the reason i mention that is because that somehow answers this question that i'm being asked all the time. so vladimir putin's so popular.
how do you know? here in this country you can measure the popularity of a politician by looking at opinion polls. maybe it's, you know, it can pluck chait plus/minus three or -- fluctuate plus/minus three or four percentage points. now, in putin's russia, first of all, you have to recognize that people are being asked noun mousily, what do you think -- anonymously, what do you think of vladimir putin, they feel uncomfortable. >> uncomfortable. >> they're uncomfortable, yeah. because many of them were either born in the soviet union or definitely have vivid memories, and asking their opinion about a kgb dictator either by phone or on the street, it puts them in some kind of, you know, it's in jeopardy. when they say, oh, 80% of russian people being asked about putin support him, my question is i want to look at the remaining 20%. [laughter]
so this means there's still 20% of people who are, you know, so up happy that they're not -- unhappy, they're afraid to say what they think about putin. i wouldn't pay any real attention to these polls because the true popularity of putin could be measured by the fact that so many people are willing to join these rallies -- >> even though new zealand -- [inaudible] >> when you are being protected by the police -- >> right. >> most likely be confronted by riot police. and people realize there will be a risk, but they're still willing to show their dissatisfaction, their disagreement and their willingness to see change. now, when putin, putin's regime and putin's cronies try to organize big rally ares like supporting the annexation of crimea, they bring people from the state. very often, you know, they give money, and it's many times recorded because they couldn't have enough enthusiasm, real enthusiasm. so they had to pay for that.
so it tells you that even if 80, 90% of people are not willing to take action, the actual level of support for putin, enthusiastic support, it's quite thin. >> so what led you, though, to your decision to leave the countriesome what were the factors that -- country? what were the factors that led up to that? >> i got an invitation to the visit the russian fbi -- >> invitation? [laughter] >> it was invitation to be, it's like be a weakness on one of the many cases that they started at the time -- a witness. in 2011, 2012. there was a crackdown, and many of my colleagues, they were already arrested or being investigated. and when i received it, actually, i was traveling abroad. my mother received it. and i called boris nemsov, my friend and colleague and ally and asked his opinion, and boris was adamant.
he said, garry, stay away. you enter the build, and if you leave the building, you will not be a witness anymore, but a suspect. so i wish he would have followed his own advice, because it was apparent at that time that the regime would to not play by its own rules. and if putin wanted to eliminate any opposition, and looking at the list of people who marched with me ten years ago, five, six years ago on moscow streets, they're either in jail, exile or worse. >> so you wrote the book "winter's coming" talking about putin as a real danger to the world, and you were critical of the obama administration for not taking that threat serious enough. which weed had thought about -- we had thought about, listened to you a little bit more atta that time. you also say we should thank
trump for showing how fragile our democratic institutions are. >> no, i think looking at what's happening now, it's good that we have trump who is not capable to destroy it, but to show the weakness of the system. that the system could be exposeded -- exposed. and also it is a wake-up call. a lot of people thought, in this country, they thought that democracy is for granted. all the rights that we have been enjoying for more than two centuries, there are for granted. i remember that two years, yeah, two years ago i was at -- [inaudible] and i tried to raise this issue about putin and the threat, and he was so dismiss i have. -- dismissive. he ended up this conversation by saying, look, wake me up when he takes over poland. wow, i almost jumped in my chair. responding that i heard similar comments about eight years ago, and we all know what was the outcome. and after november elections,
bill has changed his views and became, you know, a crusader, bashing putin and russian interference. and i couldn't, i couldn't help tweeting that it seemed that putin skip over poland and -- skipped over poland and went straight to wisconsin. [laughter] and we are, no. it's -- but also it's when i say, you know -- [inaudible] because you could see the backlash against nationalism in europe. it's because of trump, i believe, the trump's unexpected victory we saw the collapse of nationalists in holland, the party many believed was poised to win the elections were totally crushed. and by the way, it was crushed in the election because 81% of that people voted. the moment you have a majority voting over a majority, you could see that the share of vote is not as impressive as it looked. then, of course, france.
france is, that was, by the way, a big setback for putinen. he was betting on france, and they believed that they would win because they had le pen, they had also very close to putinen and mellan champion from far left. all of them talk about lifting sanctions and basically just bringing russia out of the cold and starting the new era, an era rah of cooperation. and putin lost, ma krone has won. i think, again, it was trump effect, and again, i thought the it was a good moment to make another joke saying that putin bet on three cards out of four, and he lost his bet. it seems that he was running out of trump cards. [laughter] >> okay. one more russia question. masha who's a russian who had to leave russia for her safety, recently wrote an op-ed in "the new york times", and she said we imagine the villains of history as cunning strategists, brilliant master minds of horror.
we learn about them from history books that imbue events with logic, making them seem predetermined. historians and their readers bring an unavoidable perception bias to the story. if a historical event caused shocking destruction, then the person behind this event must have been a correspondingly giant monster. terrifying as it is to contemplate the catastrophes of the 20th century, it would be even more frightening to imagine that humanity has stumbled unthinkingly into its darkest moments. as someone who spent years studying mr. putin and is one of the handful of journalists who have had unscripted conversations with him, i can vouch for the fact that he is a poorly educated, underinformed, indoor yous man whose am -- incurious man. to the extent that he has any interest in the business of governing, it is his role on television that concerns him. whether he's attending a summit, piloting a plane or lang gliding
with sigh -- hang gliding with siberian planes, it is the spectacle of power that interests him. it made me wonder how you compare the persona of president trump with vladimir putining. >> speaking of trump as we just had conversation before walking on stage, and i can repeat it here, that i think we're lucky that it was trump who actually exposed the weakness of system. man with no plan, with no strategy, and now we can deal with that because this is flawed. and there's so many weaknesses in this administration. it's not being formed properly. and i think it will help america to get stronger. of it's like with a virus. a virus attacks body with weakened immune system. so if it doesn't kill you, it
makes you stronger. [laughter] >> i don't know how comforting that is. [laughter] >> no, but this is not a deadly virus. >> right. >> this is not a deadly virus. and also it's the, putin and trump, let's look at putin. because masha is a good friend, but i'm not sure i agree entirely with what was said because in my former life, i knew it was the worst mistake one can make to underestimate your opponent. to underestimate putin, that's a big mistake. and she's right describing him as poorly educated. everything she said was right, but he had instincts. the fact is that the man stays in power for 18 years, tell you that he's quite a savvy dictator. he knows how to manipulate people around. he won these battles in russia among his cronies. but most important, he instinct i havely learned that --
instintively learned it's a brand new world, and you can use technology. you can use the free speech, the free environment of the democracy to promote your own agenda. and he knows it's not about substance. he can lie all the time. he understands that his advantages, he's not going to be called by a special counsel to testify under oath ott. he can do whatever. and he can confess, yes, i lied, as he did with crimea. remember first, oh, how dare you. i'm a man of peace. next statement three months later, oh, maybe there were some russians, you know, vacationing patriots. [laughter] then few months later, oh, how could we let these brave people fighting alone? some form of tacit approval. and then eventually a year later, full recognition, bragging. of course it was us, and pinning medals on the russian troops
that were part of invasion. now, in his mind he did everything right because he was a kgb guy. and we all remember even before becoming president when he was acting prime minister and meeting his former colleagues at kgb headquarters in moscow, he said once kgb, always kgb. and lying is a part of his job. and he is amazed that he keeps lying, and people are still buying it, still asking him did you do that? no, i didn't. [laughter] by the way, by saying i didn't, he just, you know, he's looking back at russian people thinking, of course, i did it. [laughter] >> they don't get it. >> so let's sell this nonsense to them. and it's all about his appearance. and as long as he's being treated as the most powerful man on the planet -- by the way, two consecutive years, "forbes" magazine, that's what counts. he knows not because he read
books like us, but because he has these instincts that no one ever in historyattacked a strong dictator. as long as dictator looks strong, there will be no uprising. >> well, let me get to the point about lies. you tweeted, i think yesterday, the point of modern propaganda isn't only to misinform or push an agenda, it's to exhaust your critical thinking and to annihilate truth. and i think that my concern is how can our sort of democratic society withstand this level of mendacity and chaos? what advice do you have to americans right now? >> again, first of all, you should realize that the threat does exist. i think it's better late than never. and also putin, putin found out that he can weaponize this fake news industry. and by the way, i could see that for a few people that speak russian in this audience, more than few, they should be aware that this business of creating fake news industry started in
russia many years ago by confronting russian opposition, by creating this fake presence on internet to lead people who are looking for alternative news, who were not happy with channel 1, channel 2 propaganda machine. so it worked. it's because if you show up on internet and you look, if you're browsing there and you find a web site that looks decent and has some news, but it also sells you not 100% lies as channel 1, but it has its own window where it has to make sure that while you buying the credentials of web site, you will also, you'll not notice that some of the elements of the story, they are just fake news. then putin went beyond russia to the russian -- to neighboring countries, russian-speaking world, and it worked again. and, of course, he decided he could use it globally, having create troll factories and also many lobbyists.
and finding quite successful -- because, again, he's a kgb dictator -- finding these weak spots in the free world because you can line hundred different ways. and now with all this social media channels, you can manipulate public opinion by amplifying these are the fake stories can -- >> a.i.. >> exactly. someone will pick it up. and it's more difficult to tell truth, because there's only one way. >> and it's nuanced. >> it's -- exactly. for instance, when russia, russian missile hit the plane, it was not just a blunt denial. they came up with ten different versions. yeah. oh, it was i ukraine and missile. now, it was ukrainian jet fighter. no, it was a plane full of dead bodies sent from holland. it just -- [laughter] ten different versions. by the way, it was amazing, russian television two different
channels, they both confronted the report of the dutch investigators, and they had two different versions of truth, quote-unquote. one talked and with all the diagrams showing it was ukrainian missile. another one talk about ukrainian jet fighter. almost at the same time. again, it doesn't matter. because you construe this nonsense to all different alternative versions to the public, and somebody will buy it. it's somehow, i would argue, even more dangerous than propaganda, because he doesn't have to sell you anything. the soviet propaganda was limited because they had a story to sell. they had to convince you that soviet union wants peace, and they could support only certain political groups, left, far left, anarchists communists. putin? doesn't matter. he can go with far left, far right, anything that disturbs status quo. anything that spreads chaos is
good for him. and he can sell whatever. he knows how to weaponize whatever. refugees from syria? fantastic. let's push more of them to europe, because they will disturb political balance and create problems for mainstream parties like angela merkel, in france, in other countries. so spreading chaos with putin's resources and with openness of the west and total, being totally unprepared for this kind of onslaught, that worked for him. >> so what's your advice to the ordinary americans? >> first of all, you understand that this threat does exist. and it's not, it's not a minor threat. i understand there's isis, but you should look at putin as the main source of problem because of his ability to attack you simultaneously on many fronts. you should recognize -- >> you think putin is more dangerous to american society than isis? >> you kidding me? [laughter]
are you asking now? it's, even -- not today, but some, few days, couple weeks ago when concern. [inaudible] was on -- was comey was on senate floor, he said russia is most dangerous because of its intentions and resources. isis comes and go. we can spend a lot of time talking about conspiracy theories and how many potential kgb infiltrations there, because you look at the officers that work with russia, then you have many field commanders that mysteriously, you know, came to syria. then it's about very strange relations between assad and isis. because they're not fighting each other. and by the way, russian planes never bombed isis. when you rook at putin's operation -- look at putins' operation in isis, he always bombed american-backed, western-backed rebels because he knows assad and isis are all helping to create chaos.
is you have to fight back. there are many ways you can hurt putin because as long as you look strong, he will be challenged. but you have to make him look like a loser. and the many things that you can do, start hurting them where it hurts. look, follow the money. oh, yeah, sanctions. yes, yes, sanctions, but as long as let's say united -- [inaudible] one of the top oligarchs, as long as his wife can run his business from yes geneva, of co, he can be denied visa access to europe. big deal. and the same. macron can say many tough things facing putin, but as long as -- is making business with russia, putin doesn't care. so putin's empire depends on the west complacency and willingness to make money no matter what. and we still yet to see the proper response from the united states and europe just making
sure not so much for putin, but for his cronies that the continued aggression will have a very high price. >> what do you miss most about living in moscow? >> my mother. she lives in moscow. she's 80. it was too hard for her to to move outside russia. she has two sisters, nephews, nieces. so i have my on also -- my son also from a previous marriage. that's, you know -- >> people. >> a lot of relatives there. my wife and our kids, they are in europe now. coming back and forth would be ideal, but for me now it's one-way ticket. >> all right. let's turn to "deep thinking." artificial intelligence is already changing so much about society, about work, and yet to
get to the 2016 election again, we were having debates about, you know, coal mining jobs and manufacturing sector rather than how do we adapt to this future that is not just coming, it's here. and you're an optimist, which is wonderful. i love that about the book, that you really think that if we combine machine power with human-powered thinking, that that's going to be good for the future. can you just talk to us a little bit about how you frame your thinking around machine learning and a.i., artificial intelligence? >> the idea behind the book was to combine a few themes. one is it was my personal story. it's being part of this human-machine competition and what i learned from that. another one was the story, it's a history of human-machine relations. and i thought it would be important to write it in just plain language, explaining that it's a natural progress. and you have to demystify that,
because there's so much panic based on this disfor thed version from hollywood -- distorted version from hollywood, the terminator, the matrix. look at the problem objectively. and, of course, looking into the future and promoting the what i believe is the future scenario, human plus machine cooperation. and that was the outcome of my matches with deep blue when i just realized you can't beat them, join them. [laughter] but what it is, i think as you mentioned again the elections and politics, it's always bothers me this kind of hypocrisy. because machines for centuries, if not millennials, have been taking over all forms of manual labor. now, when machines were taking over jobs from, you name it, manufacturing jobs, that's natural. now the only difference is machines coming after people with college degrees, political influence and twitter accounts. [laughter]
and it's a big story. but again, in the history timeline, it's just, it's just another, it's just a leap forward. and we just have to realize that many, i would say more, you know, aspects of cognition will be taken over by the machines. now, of course it's fear, oh, what's it going to do. there's still so much room for us to amy our creativity with machine intelligence. that's the subtitle of the book. because what i learned, and i could try to put it in just internal formula. anything that we do, and we know how we do this, machines will do better. now, the emphasis is on we now how we do. there's -- >> you can program. >> codify. something you can codify and send to the machine. now, there's so much we are doing without knowing how we do that. and it's not just simply
emotional things, it's just a lot of decisions were made to base on like parallel tracks. and machines always know the odds. they will not be able to make decisions, because they will have to compare incompatible things. it's, recently i just had a speech in amsterdam about ten days ago for a bunch of a.i. experts, and i wanted to come up with something that's a vivid example. .
and then you can add this little thing. and then to combine them with a decision end of that 20 or 25 years ago i am sure the grandchildren will think they were driving cars? the greatest cause of death. is now that i think about it will happen. >> it is happening. >> we have to know what we want to do. and it's about saving jobs for our because that flows down the cycle. because before any technology would create jobs
you will start a new cycle also with new sustainable jobs. we have to take care of our people especially my age or older to find out if there is enough opportunities and then try a to slow this down >> you are listening to the commonwealth club we have human-rights activist and former chess trivium. gary kasparov of. so let's go to a question from the audience how did you get interested in playing chess?.
>> talking about your match with deep blue a human's crack under pressure and machines don't humans can dream but machines cannot. >> but just one comment about the machine competition while it is useless to fight machines and every game eventually will be cracked with isn't about solving the game of chess is a that is more that all atoms in the solar system.
but to make that first move it is about winning the game making less mistakes than your opponents. so we always make mistakes so that is why the pressure is too much so it doesn't tell you that we're dealing with them because that is is non intelligence as your alarm clock. [laughter] but seriously it was very
expect paradise because we haven't reached that level. >> that is our you say we have to combine human intelligence and compassion. >> that is indispensable and it is in just humans having passion but it is about purpose and machines have the best algorithms but they will never have a purpose and we do but we don't know what it is we will never share the secret with the machines. [laughter] klay spinning disk another question from the audience of falwell the delta and real to of artificial intelligence has arrived?. >> the ft curve that is the
original idea of the father of computer science to say the moment that you cannot tell the machine from a human by asking a question that is artificial and intelligence but of the of their founding fathers by the way they were wrong but now we have these very small computers and play great chests but you cannot call that the intelligence. i don't know of it is a watershed moment to believe it is intelligent it is in just one day of the calendar talk about intelligence to
leave the department of science so what is intelligence and when real looking for machines is it the result for the process? perhaps it is that coming up with a resolve to make sure that happens in a way that we can understand it? so to take a similar path. i am not an expert but my opinion is we would get early incarnations of ai or
you still follow the game?. >> then it is very active in this country and as an active part of the process with the blueprints and the schools as an important educational tool and what chess can do for that. and i could probably say after ted years with young americans there is the strongest in the world and between the u.s. and juniors and the rest of the world.
>> chess will always stay in my life. butting my activities are connected to the game of chess. >> another audience question can ai come to our rescue?. >> a whole the answer is yes >> yes but you have to find a way. it doesn't just kill jobs but those opportunities are of limited things that were abandoned because it was too risky like space exploration . because there is such a powerful alliance.
>> do you play kine talk about the differences and similarities?. >> i don't play but i know the rules. but you have to be very cautious comparing chess. but the head with those two matches and did go is very complicated maybe even more strategic the game goes longer and that being said i'm not in a position to judge but talking about absolute numbers but that is
way below the human performance below the world champion of course, . [laughter] intended it so complicated so for instance with that current world champion i would bet on him saving the game. so it seems to exercise the same control of the game. >> another question from the audience you think chess has been trivialized by computers?. >> would get the people playing chess today or 20
years ago the answer is no. it depends on what you expect yes it was trivialized to follow the matches of the top players watching every move they make was a blunder because even grandmasters follow the game. and were afraid to criticize us even if a mistake. you can hear people laughing around the world to show that it was a big blunder. so that even means not to be fooled by the magnanimous presence to follow the game.
>> i read that the program did not know what to play a played random moo shu were taken aback of a logical move?. >> i will not repeat it. >> this is one of those fake news stories. [laughter] >> here is another question i lose the game after a couple of moves. how do i control that? [laughter] >> your problem is you are way beyond jazz. [laughter] -- chess the idea is to win in a few games. >> here is another question
that live exhaust critical thinking we're predictions for natural intelligence of critical thinking?. >> going back to politics politics, there is no easy answer because they look like real story is not a lie. so you should educate yourself so you can try to do is look at competing sources that is one of the ideas of the fake news avalanche from one or two
new trusted sources. >> when we knew there is one way to brainwash with no information now is exactly the opposite. you cannot verify it. so look for competing sources and at the end of the day it should be your opinion. so try to make a distinction . so it is a story but has the opinion inside. and the opinion they want you to buy.
>>. >> i don't like the term fake news as a practitioner i cannot comprehend. >> but that is the art of the problem with the do technology that allows of bad guys to promote the agenda to find those destructive evans. >> here is another audience question what is truelove ai and data to target individuals? that gets to the weaponization. >>.
machine. and the savings have been. because it is very important for us to understand the role. and we know exactly what we can add. and also with the of fake news or propaganda a very important battlefield where that perception becomes reality. >> another audience question control a wall street will be led takeover the government as well?. >> i am not sure about wall street.
and to those algorithms. >> but with my limited knowledge of those certain groups they used that combination but speaking about the future looking into the distant future, you have to look at the current moment to make sure you were not jumping over to think about the strategy of the end game. so my answer is so instead of panicking about too much artificial intelligence we
should be truly concerned of the lack of intelligence of the people. [laughter] >> this is also a question from the audience. there is a lot of concern expressed rand to talk about that some people have proposed that basic and come so people can deal with the fact that ai is taking over so many jobs. >> i would said go beyond that. the best scientific problem or social problem.
and guess these are happening in also that people live longer with better medicine but the more jobs that are entering the market that allows them to learn. so with that comprehensive solution think about people and how we integrate back into the world. we have to make sure to find something for them to do even with more resources. it is about finding the way
the peoples in their forties or fifties or sixties some jobs will be lost but some opportunities will be found. so the worst thing we can do >> is essentially this is what we're doing. >> absolutely. at this same time to debate climate change and saving jobs setter clearly and contradiction. >> say something that is very hopeful to do our best thinking under pressure and we're under a lot of pressure right now. solyndra these debates we
and the cable they can enjoy the advantage and with public opinion but to what joy that strategic advantage , it is about building that strategy for the future with the president or a senator so far these political debates are all a round of the short-term or with those midterm elections that is not the way to move forward such a combat that comprehensive vision of the
future. because we can make it happen and looking for a long term strategic solutions to the problems that are popping up all the time. >> i will take the opportunity to quote from your book that you trust job people growing up with technology to be smart about this and your advice is a hope you'll take this as an invitation to take an active role to create the future you want to seek. >> i a appreciated to and
how that changes that in the wrong direction. >> a kid to do gary kasparov of. [applause] former world the chess champion and author of the new book and keep thinking. -- a deep thinking also thinks for your great questions. please remain seated and staff will provide details i am vice president of news and that meetings of the